What will Ike be like?

Since Gustav moved on a few days ago, I have been checking the storm tracks of Hanna, Ike and Josephine. It seems pretty definite that Hanna will be skirting along the east coast over the next few days and that Josephine might lose steam before it even gets to the east coast, but Ike may be a different story. For the past couple of days I have watched as Ike has changed course southward from it's originally projected path along the east coast to now entering the Gulf of Mexico sometime around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Hurricane Ike



This morning was the first indication that I saw that it might actually cross Florida around Miami. I couldn't help but think of Hurricane Andrew back in 1992 that started by wiping out Dade County, Florida before moving on to restrengthen in the Gulf before hitting the Louisiana Gulf Coast hard near Morgan City. Lafayette fared pretty well, but my high school which was about twenty miles south, was closed for about ten days. Many of my friends from further south didn't return home for several weeks.

Hurricane Andrew



Once I got to work today, some of my co-workers were noting Ike's similar track to Hurricane Katrina which also crossed over Florida near Miami before restrengthening in the Gulf before becoming the storm that has left New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast in ruins. I was living in Nashville at the time, but my friends and family here in Lafayette were hardly affected by Katrina other than the influx of refugees. In fact, on the day of Katrina, Roxi said it barely even rained in town.

Hurricane Katrina



In looking at the most recent hurricane to really impact Lafayette, I turned to Rita. Again it was worse for people south and west of Lafayette including the Texas Gulf Coast. It was probably as bad for Lafayette as Gustav. Our house had a tree fall on it but power was never lost.

Hurricane Rita



Ike's five day track looks the most like Rita, but there is that little northward hitch that Ike is projected to take once it gets past Florida. That could be bad for the west coast of Florida and the panhandle. Unfortunately it is still too early to tell where this storm will be going but if it looks like it is heading our way and it is picking up strength, we might just pack up and leave for a while. I just don't want to go through the things that our friends in Houma, Baton Rouge and even Lafayette had to endure or are still enduring as a result of a Gustav.